Bitcoin [BTC] has faced challenges over the past two months, which is not out of the ordinary. The psychological barrier at $100,000 has proven difficult to surpass. Even when it seemed that bulls had finally supported it at that level, sellers quickly reversed course and brought prices down again.
Source: X. p > div > A recent post on X, formerly Twitter, suggests that Bitcoin’s decline in January after the
halving aligns with historical trends. If this pattern persists, Bitcoin could reach approximately $130,000 by March. p > Analyzing historical price data alongside BTC flows into and out of
centralized exchanges offers significant insights into market dynamics. The recent distribution actions by short-term holders may diminish going forward. This trend could pave the way for a BTC rally on the charts. p >
Exchange netflow and price trends indicate growing
bullish sentiment for Bitcoin. Following its peak in early December, Bitcoin’s 30-day average inflows have plummeted sharply. The 30-day average hit its lowest recorded levels in October 2024 and June 2024. p > BTC was priced near its local low of $60,000 during June while operating within a descending channel. In October it broke free from this channel but continued to face resistance around the $70,000 threshold. Thus it was encouraging to observe declining BTC inflows as prices stabilized below $100,000. p > Net inflow figures (the balance between incoming and outgoing flows) have also shown a downward trend. From March 2024 onward ,the 30-day averages remained primarily negative aside from a brief uptick during mid-May. p > When comparing recent inflow patterns with past cycles , no extended periods of negative net flow or outflows were noted before . Negative net inflows were evident throughout late July until end-November back then . However ,accumulative twelve month inflow counts greatly surpassed those witnessed three-month preceding exodus events last time round . ul > section>.
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The current belief in Bitcoin appears more robust than before among investors.
This might not trigger drastic price surges immediately; however ever-increasing long-term holders’ confidence implies they may react less dramatically during sharp downturns which can translate into lesser volatility oftentimes associated with traditional BTC bull markets moving forward.
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