Bitcoin Prediction After Halving: “Fastest Horse” or 90 Percent Crash?
Journalist
- Bitcoin prices are influenced by ETFs and pre-halving events
- Will Clemente and Arthur Hayes analyze Bitcoin’s future prospects and price drivers
Bitcoin is just a hop away! [BTC] Halving 2024. The pre-halving was unusual, and BTC’s price action makes us wonder if the fourth halving will be any different.
Bitcoin: An Executive Analysis
Arthur Hayes (CIO of Maelstrom) and Will Clemente (co-founder of Reflexivity Research) both appeared on a podcast called “Unchained” to explain the reasons behind the most popular cryptocurrency’s unusual movements.
Hayes highlighted the significant impact Bitcoin ETFs have had on the crypto ecosystem, which has led to record sell-offs and inflows of fiat currency. This has pushed prices higher. Hayes pointed out:
“Of course, every cycle is different… the main theme of this cycle is the addition of a Bitcoin-based derivative that institutions can invest in globally. So we are really tied to those flows in terms of how the price movement evolves.”
This article explains the complex factors that affect the price of Bitcoin. These include the Bitcoin halving and macro liquidity cycles. It also discusses the behavioral dynamics of Bitcoin as well as the impact of passive flow from the approved spot ETFs.
Clemente also shed light on the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs on decentralization, price volatility, and other factors.
I don’t think decentralization is a big issue for me. I think Bitcoin’s volatility will naturally decrease as it grows, becomes more liquid, and has more volume.
What’s next for the King Coin?
The speakers did not miss the opportunity to highlight the existing economic tensions and the factors that influence institutional investors’ decisions to invest in Bitcoin.
The authors also discussed the history of the destruction and demise of the Treasury bond market, the role of central banks in money printing, as well as the demographic shift towards digital investors.
Clemente is confident that Bitcoin will continue to rise, similar to traditional indices. He said:
“I think Bitcoin will be the fastest horse over the next few years, and we will hedge against that.”
Hayes, on the other hand, outlined a longer crypto market cycle with larger potential gains. He also predicted a significant 85% to 90% drop in BTC.
Will market uncertainty, the upcoming halving, and traditional cycles continue to make us nervous?
