Polymarket – Why a $45 Million Bet on Trump Raises Concerns About Manipulation

• No evidence of manipulation despite significant whales betting on Trump, according to Polymarket.
• Prediction market odds are diverging from traditional polls, complicating election predictions.

The US presidential election is just around the corner, intensifying the competition between Donald Trump and his opponents.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have emerged as important tools for understanding public sentiment.

Polymarket addresses allegations

Recently, Polymarket has been in the news defending itself against claims of market manipulation despite major bets placed by a well-known investor commonly referred to as a “whale.”

This individual is a French national with an impressive financial portfolio who has wagered over $45 million on Trump’s chances of winning the election.

A spokesperson for Polymarket stated to Bloomberg:

“Our findings indicate that this individual holds a position based on personal beliefs about the election outcome. Furthermore, our inquiries have shown no evidence suggesting that this user has sought to manipulate or alter market conditions. This user has agreed not to create further accounts without prior notification.”

Speculations surrounding prediction markets

This controversy arises from ongoing concerns regarding potential manipulation within Polymarket related specifically to Trump’s high standing in polling data.

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](Analysts and blockchain investigators have alerted observers that certain accounts could be linked—or managed— by one investor attempting to sway odds in favor of Trump.)
The account called “Fredi9999” has attracted attention due to these allegations.n>

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This speculation stirs worries about transparency concerning betting activities on the platform and calls into question how reliable its predictions may be.)

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